Fed Holds the Line—Is a Rate Cut Next?
The Federal Reserve announced its decision yesterday to hold the Fed Funds Rate at 5.25 to 5.5 percent, while offering hope for a rate cut in September.
The hold was not a surprise, given the Fed’s reluctance to pronounce inflation defeated and move to a less restrictive monetary policy too soon. Most pundits were forecasting a September cut, anyway. But, with Core PCE inflation rising at 2.6 percent in June (the Fed’s target is 2 percent), and the job market tightening, rate watchers were kept guessing until the last minute.
Recent data on inflation and the job market have given the 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee confidence, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, but they “voted unanimously” to wait for more good data before making a cut.
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When the Fed does lower rates, he said, it will be based on satisfactory readings from both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate: stable prices and maximum employment.
“The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market,” Powell remarked during a press conference following the announcement. “If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”
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